In order to understand the turbulent world of Thai politics, you have to start with one name: Thaksin Shinawatra.
The former prime
minister has dominated the country's political scene for more than a
decade despite going into exile after his ouster in a 2006 coup.
Back in 2010, deadly
clashes took place between security forces and Thaksin supporters who
had occupied central Bangkok. They were demanding his return
.
Now, his sister is in
power and she recently tried to pass an amnesty law that could have
allowed his return. The attempt failed, but it provided fueled the
current protests shaking the capital.
Here's a quick primer to make sense of it all.
In order to understand the turbulent world of Thai politics, you have to start with one name: Thaksin Shinawatra.
The former prime
minister has dominated the country's political scene for more than a
decade despite going into exile after his ouster in a 2006 coup.
Back in 2010, deadly
clashes took place between security forces and Thaksin supporters who
had occupied central Bangkok. They were demanding his return.
Now, his sister is in
power and she recently tried to pass an amnesty law that could have
allowed his return. The attempt failed, but it provided fueled the
current protests shaking the capital.
Here's a quick primer to make sense of it all.
1. Who is Thaksin?
He's a deeply polarizing
figure -- a billionaire telecommunications mogul who built his
political power on policies popular with Thailand's rural villagers.
His success ruffled a lot of feathers among the country's established
elites, and critics accused him of corruption and autocratic rule. He
was prime minister between 2001 and 2006, when the military deposed him
in a bloodless coup.
2. What happened in 2010?
Thaksin's ouster
spurred the protest movement that developed over the years into the
widespread "red shirt" demonstrations that occupied upscale parts of
Bangkok in 2010. By that stage, the movement had broadened to represent
other issues, including resentment at the military's involvement in
politics and economic inequality. The crackdown by security forces on
the red shirts resulted in clashes that left around 90 people dead. It
has been described as the worst civil violence in Thailand's history,
and the country remains severely scarred by the experience.
3. Could the current protests lead to a repeat?
The situation is different this time.
Those protesting are
opponents of Thaksin rather than his supporters. His sister, Yingluck
Shinawatra, is now prime minister. Her government is under pressure
after widespread anger over its recent failed attempt to pass a bill
that could have granted amnesty to Thaksin and others.
Although the public has
generally moved on from the conflict over the amnesty bill, the
opposition Democrat Party is trying to use the issue to bring down
Yingluck's government, says Paul Quaglia, director of the Bangkok-based
risk assessment firm PQA Associates.
"The government is
facing probably a countdown until it will have to dissolve and hold new
elections," Quaglia says. "But it doesn't look like it's a replay of
2010 when we're going to see violence in the streets and an extended
takeover of central Bangkok."
4. What has Thaksin been up to?
He has been living in
exile in a number of different places, most recently Dubai, while
continuing to play an active role in Thai politics.
He briefly returned to
Thailand in 2008. Later that year, he was convicted by a Thai court of
corruption and sentenced in absentia to two years in prison over a
controversial land deal. Courts have also frozen billions of dollars of
his assets, but he is believed to still have a great deal of money held
elsewhere.
He's also stayed
heavily involved in Thai politics over the years, communicating with
supporters via social media and video messages. With his younger sister
in power since 2011, his influence remains strong. Critics say Yingluck
is Thaksin's puppet, but she insists she has always been independent.
5. What is happening this week?
After weeks of
demonstrations, thousands of protesters have gathered around government
buildings in central Bangkok, occupying some of them for varying
periods of time. Yingluck has expanded the area in and around Bangkok
covered by an internal security law that gives police extra powers to
disband protesters. In parliament, the Prime Minister is facing a "no
confidence" motion against her. And police have issued an arrest
warrant against protest leader, Suthep Thaugsuban.
6. What's at stake for the region?
The demonstrations are
bringing instability once again to Thailand, a key regional economy and
popular tourist destination. The protests are centered on Bangkok, a
vital transportation hub, especially for air travel. So far, the
protests are concentrated in specific parts of the city. More than a
dozen countries have issued travel warnings for citizens to avoid areas
near protests in Bangkok.
7. What do the demonstrators want?
Protest leader Suthep
Thaugsuban, a former deputy prime minister under the previous
Democrat-led government, has said the demonstrations "will not stop
until Thaksin's regime is wiped out." Such an aim seems ambitious.
Yingluck's government was democratically elected and her Pheu Thai
party retains support in its core areas. The current protests have
echoes of 2008 when demonstrators opposed to a pro-Thaksin government
occupied Bangkok's main airport and government offices.
8. Where are the protesters getting their support from?
Opposition to Thaksin and Yingluck is strongest among the urban elites and middle class. That means the capital.
"Bangkok is the ground
zero for anti-Thaksin protest movements," Quaglia says. "The rest of
the country, other than southern Thailand, is either in his camp or
sort of politically neutral." That's why the recent demonstrations have
been concentrated in the streets of the capital.
9. What's the government's support base?
Thaksin's traditional
support comes from the populous rural areas of north and northeast of
Thailand. The government's botched amnesty move may have hurt its
standing in those areas, but not fatally.
"Despite the pictures
of thousands of people in the street that doesn't necessarily mean the
government will go -- or if it does go, that it will lose the next
election," Quaglia says.
10. What is likely to happen next?
Questions remain over
the ability of Yingluck's government to maintain order in the capital
and weather the heavy political pressure in Parliament. Some observers
are concerned that government supporters, tens of thousands of whom
rallied in Bangkok on Sunday, could clash with opposition demonstrators.
Yingluck has said authorities would "absolutely not use violence" to disperse the demonstrators.
Even if Yingluck survives the "no confidence" motion against her, the situation appears unlikely to calm down soon.
"We're going to see political instability here for some time," Quaglia says.
CNN
No comments:
Post a Comment